Financial Issues Forum and Fordham University presents Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz on Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (VIRTUAL)

The shocks and crises of recent years—pandemic, recession, inflation, war—have forced executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting, pervasive doomsaying and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral—or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected. How can leaders avoid these macro traps to make better tactical and strategic decisions?

In this perspective-shifting book, BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to assess macroeconomic risk, and a corrective to prevailing thinking and practice. Casting doubt on conventional model-based thinking, they demonstrate a more powerful approach to building sound macroeconomic judgment. Using incisive analysis built upon frameworks, historical context and structural narratives—what they call “economic eclecticism”—the book empowers readers with the durable skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real economy, financial system and the geopolitical arena.

About the Speakers
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is Boston Consulting Group’s global chief economist. He also leads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute. Philipp advises executives and investors on the tactical economic outlook and on structural change. Publishing at the intersection of finance, macroeconomics, and business, he is a frequent contributor to Harvard Business Review, World Economic Forum and other business publications. You can read Philipp’s latest thinking in his Fortune.com column. Philipp was previously chief economist at Sanford C. Bernstein, where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors across the global asset management industry. Earlier in his career, he spent more than 10 years advising financial institutions and governments at BCG, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and McKinsey & Company.

Paul Swartz is a senior economist and director in Boston Consulting Group’s New York office. He works within the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute. Paul previously worked at AB Bernstein (Sanford C. Bernstein), where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors. Earlier in his career, Paul focused on global macroeconomic issues while working at Goldman Sachs, the Council on Foreign Relations and Bridgewater Associates. He serves as the vice-chair to the Dean’s Advisory Board (College of Art & Sciences) at Syracuse University.